The Major League Baseball world was recently shaken by a blockbuster trade involving 25-year-old All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, who is on the move once again. The Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays reached a significant trade agreement just before the July 30 trade deadline, marking another chapter in Paredes' eventful career.
Paredes originally entered the scene when he signed with the Cubs as an amateur, before being traded to the Detroit Tigers. Following a stint with Detroit, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays. Now, Paredes is making a return to Chicago, the team that first recognized his potential.
A Promising Track Record
Boasting a slash line of .237/.340/.458 (126 OPS+) and 67 home runs across 354 games, Paredes has shown he can hold his own among the elite in his position. His performance places him just behind renowned third basemen Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado in OPS+ during the same time frame. Despite his notable offensive stats, Statcast's metrics reveal that Paredes' average exit velocity ranks in the 4th percentile.
This discrepancy is fascinating given that, according to Robert Orr's database, Paredes pulls a greater share of fly balls than any other player in the majors. Statcast also estimates that, had Paredes played at Wrigley Field throughout his career, he would have 12 fewer home runs, including five fewer this season alone.
Cubs' Strategic Move
The Cubs clearly see potential in Paredes, recognizing his ability to boost their batting capacity and overall team dynamics. Paredes' contract provides the Cubs with team control through the 2027 season, making this deal an investment in both the present and the future. The Cubs' lineup is expected to get a significant uplift with his inclusion, especially as the team eyes a competitive playoff push.
This trade is part of a broader wave of activity by the Rays, who have also traded key players Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Phil Maton, and Jason Adam since the start of July. Despite winning 99 games last season, the Rays seem to be in a phase of strategic realignment, aiming to remain competitive without compromising future flexibility.
The Promising Return of Christopher Morel
As part of the deal, the Rays receive Christopher Morel, a promising 25-year-old batter whose 90th percentile exit velocity makes him comparable to notable hitters Teoscar Hernández and Joc Pederson. Analysts have high hopes for Morel, stating, "Morel strikes us as someone who is a decent bet to be an above-average hitter for at least the next few years." This suggests that the Rays might consider positioning Morel at second base, left field, or as a designated hitter to maximize his offensive contributions, even if it comes with some defensive drawbacks.
Joining Morel in heading to the Rays are Bigge, a 26-year-old pitcher who has made four big-league appearances this season with the Cubs, and Johnson, a 22-year-old recently picked from Ball State in last summer’s 15th round.
The Rays' Bold Strategy
The Rays' trade decisions reflect a bold, forward-thinking strategy. One expert insightfully noted, "Clearly the Powers That Be in St. Petersburg view Ron Schueler as a fearless trailblazer that never got his due." This daring approach mirrors that of Ron Schueler, highlighting the management's willingness to make unpopular yet strategic moves.
The comparison to the "White Flag Trade" executed by the 1997 Chicago White Sox also adds context to these trades. Despite their aggressive trades, the Rays are only half a game behind in playoff positioning, indicating that their moves are far from reckless abandonment of their current season.
In essence, this trade encapsulates the fine balance teams like the Rays must strike between maintaining competitiveness today and ensuring flexibility and potential for tomorrow. As the MLB world watches, only time will tell how these moves will impact the trajectories of both the Cubs and the Rays.